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Spread: Ravens (-3.5)

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $161.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $58.1KEvent: Ravens vs. Colts
46.5¢
Ravens
53.5¢
Colts
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:2 trades$26.9K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 185 min agoofficial metadata 22s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRavens$20.2K@ 46¢·one8tyfive

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$20.2K
tracked
$26.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 185 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ravens" if the Ravens win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Colts".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ravens" if the Ravens win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ravens@ 47.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ravens; negative values favor Colts. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRavens · $0
6hRavens · $20.2K
24hRavens · $13.5K

Ravens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ravens price. Colts fills are converted to the complementary Ravens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h46.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d46.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Ravens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$30.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRavens$20.2K@ 46.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

one8tyfiveRavens$20.2K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.