Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers (BO5) - Games of the Future Playoffs

● quote 112 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $9.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.2KEvent: Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers (BO5) - Games of the Future Playoffs
53.0¢
YES
47.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly58Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$49.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 117 min agoofficial metadata 113 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPlayTime (YES)$48.3K@ 67¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$518
6h
+$47.8K
tracked
$49.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$48.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: -15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 112 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 117 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 113 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between PlayTime and Yakult Brothers in the Games of the Future Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against Yakult Brothers. This market will resolve to "Yakult Brothers" if Yakult Brothers win the match against PlayTime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2e3c…08ba2 linked markets · $150 gross
0x5672…73122 linked markets · $49 gross
0x1ed1…fd2a2 linked markets · $25 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY PlayTime@ 69.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY PlayTime@ 69.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $33$535 · 70s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$518
6h+$47.8K
24h+$47.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.0¢
VWAP 24h66.7¢▼ below by 13.7pp
VWAP 7d66.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$48.5K
60¢
$0
55¢
$155
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$489
40¢
$6
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPlayTime (YES)$48.3K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563PlayTime$48.3K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.