National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi

● quote 39 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $473.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $367.3KEvent: National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi
27.5¢
YES
72.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:100 trades$28.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$69·3 wallets·$109 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFabian Marozsan (YES)$13.4K@ 65¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$328
6h
+$14.2K
tracked
$28.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$69 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 39 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 47 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 43 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Fabian Marozsan and Matteo Arnaldi in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Fabian Marozsan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $6.9K$186 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$328
6h+$14.2K
24h+$25.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h59.8¢▼ below by 32.3pp
VWAP 7d59.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$13.8K
60¢
$674
55¢
$11.9K
50¢
$138
45¢
$969
40¢
$683
35¢
$37
30¢
$73
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$5
5¢
$248
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFabian Marozsan (YES)$13.4K@ 65.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYFabian Marozsan (YES)$11.4K@ 57.0¢0x45e4…7e20🐋about 11 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampFabian Marozsan$13.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
0x45e4…7e20Fabian Marozsan$11.4K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.