LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner

● quote 43 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $752.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $725.6KEvent: LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:144 trades$31.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 73 min agoofficial metadata 45 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$11.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYShifters (YES)$11.4K@ 44¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.3K
6h
+$17.8K
tracked
$31.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$11.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 43 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 73 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 45 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Shifters and GIANTX in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 7 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shifters" if Shifters win Game 1 against GIANTX. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win Game 1 against Shifters. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $5.3K gross
0x2e3c…08ba3 linked markets · $270 gross
0xec98…afcd2 linked markets · $258 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $8$10 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.3K
6h+$17.8K
24h+$17.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h34.1¢▼ below by 33.1pp
VWAP 7d34.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.9K
40¢
$20.3K
35¢
$179
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.1K
10¢
$92
5¢
$282
0¢
← now
$5.3K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYShifters (YES)$11.4K@ 44.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

esportGGShifters$11.4K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.