Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

● quote 29 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $91.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:102 trades$141.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $123.1K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$123.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY1win (NO)$70.1K@ 58¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$7.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.2K
6h
−$117.4K
tracked
$141.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$123.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -63.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 29 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 31 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 19:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket final match between Team Liquid and 1win in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 8:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 2 against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 2 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $68.0K gross
0xf3ef…ca6b2 linked markets · $2.9K gross
0x6b23…04a32 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY 1win1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY 1win1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY 1win1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY 1win1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO DOWN 17.0pp · near-book depth $249$15 · 27s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$7.2K
6h$117.4K
24h$117.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h43.6¢▲ above by 56.3pp
VWAP 7d43.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$157
90¢
$1.9K
85¢
$56
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$128
65¢
$3.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$241
40¢
$124.8K
35¢
$5.8K
30¢
$3.5K
25¢
$315
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUY1win (NO)$70.1K@ 58.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUY1win (NO)$30.0K@ 58.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUY1win (NO)$20.0K@ 56.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…05631win$70.1K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
0xe16d…5e301win$53.0K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.