Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

● quote 88 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $977.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $304.0KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
44.5¢
YES
55.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection87Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority85Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$154.7K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 96 min agoofficial metadata 89 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $46.8K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$46.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$100.8K@ 56¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$134.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$134.4K
6h
−$145.6K
tracked
$154.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$46.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 85

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 88 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 96 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 89 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for August 11 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading3 linked markets · $73.6K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $48.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $19.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Detroit Tigers@ 56.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Detroit Tigers@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$134.4K
6h$145.6K
24h$154.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h44.2¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d44.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$20.3K
40¢
← now
$134.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$100.8K@ 56.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$33.6K@ 56.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$11.2K@ 55.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
48.5¢$193.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
56.5¢$76.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$417.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
62.5¢$247.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
57.5¢$232.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.4¢$217.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafDetroit Tigers$100.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingDetroit Tigers$34.6K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Detroit Tigers$12.2K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.