Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs

● quote 32 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $348.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs
59.0¢
YES
41.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:107 trades$47.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 32 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$31.0K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$31.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$31.0K@ 76¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$7.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.8K
6h
+$33.1K
tracked
$47.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$31.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 63

Since latest deadline positioning: -16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 32 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 32 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between Team Falcons and Team Liquid in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
esportGG2 linked markets · $57.8K gross
0x4713…4d212 linked markets · $1.0K gross
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $130 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Falcons@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $198$562 · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$7.8K
6h+$33.1K
24h+$33.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.0¢
VWAP 24h73.3¢▼ below by 14.3pp
VWAP 7d73.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$44
75¢
$37.5K
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$304
60¢
$8.0K
55¢
← now
$6
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$31.0K@ 76.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

esportGGTeam Falcons$31.0K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.