Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5

● quote 2836 min ago
SportsCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $93.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $381.8KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
99.9¢
YES
14.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly33Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution29Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.6K·3 wallets·$1.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$107.2K@ 55¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
+$82.3K
tracked
$136.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 35 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 2836 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 2862 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for August 6 at 7:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RN12 linked markets · $1.6K gross
0xbca0…97053 linked markets · $985 gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $860 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 54.0¢2d ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.3K
6h+$82.3K
24h+$82.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h54.9¢▲ above by 45.0pp
VWAP 7d54.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$120.8K
50¢
$13.6K
45¢
$4
40¢
$33
35¢
$228
30¢
$567
25¢
$141
20¢
$1
15¢
$0
10¢
$17
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$13.5K@ 46.0¢0xa9b9…dd41🐋2 days ago
BUYUnder (NO)$13.3K@ 45.0¢0xa9b9…dd41🐋2 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$107.2K@ 55.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋2 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
99.2¢$888.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$429.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner
84.5¢$362.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
100.0¢$352.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
100.0¢$292.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
54.5¢$280.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$107.4K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
0xa9b9…dd41Under$26.9K
BUY VWAP 45.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.