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Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Henri Squire

● quote 6636 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $241.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $135.6KEvent: Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Henri Squire
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection98Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTom Gentzsch (YES)$16.3K@ 96¢·swisstony

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$16.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$16.6K
6h
+$16.6K
tracked
$17.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$16.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 24 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 6636 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 6667 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tom Gentzsch and Henri Squire in the Hagen, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tom Gentzsch' if Tom Gentzsch advances against Henri Squire. This market will resolve to 'Henri Squire' if Henri Squire advances against Tom Gentzsch. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tom Gentzsch@ 93.0¢5d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$16.6K
6h+$16.6K
24h+$16.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h95.9¢▲ above by 4.0pp
VWAP 7d95.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$16.7K
90¢
$227
85¢
$2
80¢
$1
75¢
$1
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTom Gentzsch (YES)$16.3K@ 96.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—5 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyTom Gentzsch$16.3K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.