National Bank Open: Taylor Townsend vs Belinda Bencic

● quote 107 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $445.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $262.2KEvent: National Bank Open: Taylor Townsend vs Belinda Bencic
52.5¢
YES
47.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:97 trades$4.8K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 116 min agoofficial metadata 107 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTaylor Townsend (YES)$1.6K@ 40¢·0xf148…0b4f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$966
6h
−$988
tracked
$4.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$5 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • Executable quote is 107 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 116 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 107 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Townsend and Belinda Bencic in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Townsend' if Taylor Townsend advances against Belinda Bencic. This market will resolve to 'Belinda Bencic' if Belinda Bencic advances against Taylor Townsend. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $78.0K$42.5K · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$966
6h$988
24h$988

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h42.1¢▲ above by 10.4pp
VWAP 7d42.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8
55¢
$353
50¢
← now
$688
45¢
$192
40¢
$2.5K
35¢
$655
30¢
$443
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity