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Will Australia win?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $22.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.9KEvent: Test Series Australia vs Bangladesh: Australia vs Bangladesh
72.5¢
YES
27.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:15 trades$29.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.9K@ 73¢·0x7200…9299

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.0K
6h
+$24.4K
tracked
$29.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.espncricinfo.com/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between Australia and Bangladesh scheduled for August 12 2026 in Test Series Australia vs Bangladesh. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 73.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.0K
6h+$24.4K
24h+$26.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current72.5¢
VWAP 24h74.3¢▼ below by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d77.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.9K
90¢
$4.7K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$25.8K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$10.9K@ 73.0¢0x7200…9299🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7200…9299Yes$20.2K
BUY VWAP 73.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.