National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez

● quote 96 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $81.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $70.8KEvent: National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez
76.5¢
YES
23.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly34Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$1.6K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 97 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.6K·2 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMirra Andreeva (YES)$1.4K@ 75¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$16
6h
+$1.6K
tracked
$1.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 96 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 110 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 97 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mirra Andreeva and Leylah Fernandez in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 8, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mirra Andreeva' if Mirra Andreeva advances against Leylah Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Mirra Andreeva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$16
6h+$1.6K
24h+$1.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.5¢
VWAP 24h75.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d75.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$1.6K
70¢
$5
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity