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National Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur

● quote 37 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $478.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: National Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur
98.7¢
YES
1.3¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:187 trades$92.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 41 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.2K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$21.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$42.3K@ 44¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$8.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.9K
6h
+$36.7K
tracked
$92.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$1.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +56.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 37 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 50 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 41 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Cameron Norrie3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cameron Norrie@ 42.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -28.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.1pp · near-book depth $19.8K → $985 · 2s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8.9K
6h+$36.7K
24h+$36.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.7¢
VWAP 24h35.9¢▲ above by 62.8pp
VWAP 7d35.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$59
55¢
$14
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$55.1K
35¢
$5
30¢
$0
25¢
$10.1K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAlex de Minaur (NO)$12.0K@ 59.9¢0xb2d2…3910🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$42.3K@ 43.5¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$10.1K@ 25.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Cameron Norrie$42.3K
BUY VWAP 43.5¢·1 fill
0xb2d2…3910Alex de Minaur$12.0K
BUY VWAP 59.9¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Cameron Norrie$10.1K
BUY VWAP 25.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.