National Bank Open: Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
4 verified profitable wallets: −$17.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 70% · priority 0
Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
- •Executable quote is 104 minutes old.
- •Observed tape is 114 minutes old.
- •Official market metadata is 96 minutes old.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Read full resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Arthur Fils in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Mariano Navone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.