Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins

● quote 85 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $195.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $277.0KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
77.5¢
YES
22.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$128.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 91 min agoofficial metadata 86 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$80.0K@ 50¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.3K
6h
+$94.7K
tracked
$128.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$3.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 51

Since latest large flow: +28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 85 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 91 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 86 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 28.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for August 12 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $143.2K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $8.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $49.4K$46 · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.3K
6h+$94.7K
24h+$94.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.5¢
VWAP 24h51.2¢▲ above by 26.3pp
VWAP 7d51.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3
60¢
$8.4K
55¢
$2.0K
50¢
$107.4K
45¢
$10.4K
40¢
$3
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMinnesota Twins (NO)$10.2K@ 51.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$80.0K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$11.0K@ 50.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafBaltimore Orioles$80.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
johnny234Baltimore Orioles$11.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
FeromontMinnesota Twins$10.2K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.