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Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $286.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $409.6KEvent: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
0.8¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:100 trades$238.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$3.9K·3 wallets·$8.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$40.2K@ 100¢·Feromont

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$29.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$29.1K
6h
+$56.5K
tracked
$238.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$3.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 18:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for August 12 at 2:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $146.1K gross
0x5268…135d3 linked markets · $41.8K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $13.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY St. Louis Cardinals@ 95.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -38.0pp1h INVALIDATED -49.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 65.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -53.0pp1h INVALIDATED -64.6pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $9 → $460 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$29.1K
6h+$56.5K
24h+$56.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.8¢
VWAP 24h32.0¢▼ below by 31.2pp
VWAP 7d32.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$13.9K
60¢
$22.0K
55¢
$51.5K
50¢
$13.2K
45¢
$17.9K
40¢
$1.7K
35¢
$273
30¢
$1
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$64.1K
5¢
$2.9K
0¢
← now
$51.4K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$40.2K@ 99.9¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$37.7K@ 87.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$22.0K@ 88.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$10.0K@ 40.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (YES)$12.9K@ 67.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FeromontSt. Louis Cardinals$37.7K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dPhiladelphia Phillies$19.7K
BUY VWAP 54.8¢·7 fills
FeromontPhiladelphia Phillies$19.5K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·3 fills
kkookkooPhiladelphia Phillies$12.9K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
johnny234St. Louis Cardinals$10.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.