Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox

● quote 107 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $256.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $187.1KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
24.5¢
YES
75.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection55Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$90.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 116 min agoofficial metadata 108 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.0K·2 wallets·$8.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$35.4K@ 62¢·xifutloong3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$48.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$48.4K
6h
−$62.7K
tracked
$90.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$4.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 53

Since latest large flow: +17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 107 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 116 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 108 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 17.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for August 12 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $38.2K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $10.9K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $4.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Chicago White Sox2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 58.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $47.8K$71 · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$48.4K
6h$62.7K
24h$65.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.5¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▼ below by 14.0pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.1K
40¢
$13.7K
35¢
$65.8K
30¢
$4.5K
25¢
$4.1K
20¢
← now
$20
15¢
$2
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$35.4K@ 62.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$20.3K@ 61.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
46.5¢$824.5Kpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
93.5¢$740.8Kpriority83Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$418.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
95.5¢$299.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.6¢$237.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
3.5¢$186.4Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Chicago White Sox$35.4K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafChicago White Sox$20.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.