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Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-19?

● quote 1081 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $280.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $289.2KEvent: CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC
99.9¢
YES
4.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets71Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:80 trades$104.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1131 min agoofficial metadata 1071 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$27.4K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$38.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$22.8K@ 60¢·kekasaur

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$1
6h
+$49.7K
tracked
$104.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$27.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1081 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1131 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1071 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://conmebollibertadores.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 19, 2026 If CR Flamengo wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $19.9K gross
dv-pm2 linked markets · $12.7K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $8.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 60.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +21.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $9.2K → $3.9K · 21s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1
6h+$49.7K
24h+$56.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h70.2¢▲ above by 29.7pp
VWAP 7d70.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$28
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$1.8K
80¢
$41.9K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$12.6K
60¢
$11.6K
55¢
$33.5K
50¢
$284
45¢
$1.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$12.7K@ 81.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$22.8K@ 59.9¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 24 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kekasaurYes$22.8K
BUY VWAP 59.9¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Yes$16.4K
BUY VWAP 81.2¢·2 fills
0x2a69…d2f7Yes$11.4K
BUY VWAP 80.5¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.