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Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka

● quote 62 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection85Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$70.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 65 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$59.7K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$62.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJoel Schwaerzler (YES)$61.0K@ 79¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$60.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$60.3K
6h
+$59.8K
tracked
$70.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$59.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 62 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 65 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Joel Schwaerzler and Ilya Ivashka in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joel Schwaerzler' if Joel Schwaerzler advances against Ilya Ivashka. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Joel Schwaerzler. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Joel Schwaerzler2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY YES2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Joel Schwaerzler2h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Joel Schwaerzler@ 74.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $57.2K → $11.4K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$60.3K
6h+$59.8K
24h+$59.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h78.9¢▲ above by 21.0pp
VWAP 7d78.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$15
90¢
$15
85¢
$33
80¢
$6.5K
75¢
$61.7K
70¢
$725
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$205
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJoel Schwaerzler (YES)$61.0K@ 79.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekJoel Schwaerzler$61.0K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.