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Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 43 minutesLiquidity: $86.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $186.5KEvent: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
27.5¢
YES
72.5¢
NO
9.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$30.1K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$28.4K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$28.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$14.3K@ 42¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.5K
6h
+$26.7K
tracked
$30.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$28.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
9.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 9.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 7 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $65.2K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $17 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $41 → $5 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.5K
6h+$26.7K
24h+$26.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h42.4¢▼ below by 14.9pp
VWAP 7d42.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$30.1K
35¢
$8
30¢
$2
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$14.1K@ 43.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$14.3K@ 42.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiMiami Marlins$14.3K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
quavooMiami Marlins$14.1K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.