Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe

● quote 141 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $426.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $240.1KEvent: Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$49.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 176 min agoofficial metadata 143 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $186·2 wallets·$502 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRadu Mihai Papoe (NO)$23.5K@ 77¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$191
6h
+$3.7K
tracked
$49.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$186 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 141 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 176 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 143 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Alexandrescou and Radu Mihai Papoe in the Plovdiv 2, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yannick Alexandrescou' if Yannick Alexandrescou advances against Radu Mihai Papoe. This market will resolve to 'Radu Mihai Papoe' if Radu Mihai Papoe advances against Yannick Alexandrescou. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Radu Mihai Papoe@ 87.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $42.5K$38.4K · 27s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$191
6h+$3.7K
24h+$3.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h24.9¢▼ below by 23.9pp
VWAP 7d24.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$17
25¢
$21.8K
20¢
$26.8K
15¢
$739
10¢
$398
5¢
$3
0¢
← now
$13

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLRadu Mihai Papoe (NO)$23.5K@ 77.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYRadu Mihai Papoe (NO)$21.7K@ 71.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Radu Mihai Papoe$21.7K
BUY VWAP 71.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.