Istanbul 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Ilia Simakin

● quote 176 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $258.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $187.1KEvent: Istanbul 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Ilia Simakin
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$82.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 200 min agoofficial metadata 169 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $23.8K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$24.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIlia Simakin (NO)$20.2K@ 100¢·0x5a27…3404

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$23.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$23.4K
6h
−$46.5K
tracked
$82.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$23.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.7pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 176 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 200 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 169 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Antoine Ghibaudo and Ilia Simakin in the Istanbul 2, originally scheduled for August 8, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Antoine Ghibaudo' if Antoine Ghibaudo advances against Ilia Simakin. This market will resolve to 'Ilia Simakin' if Ilia Simakin advances against Antoine Ghibaudo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ilia Simakin@ 96.3¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$23.4K
6h$46.5K
24h$46.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h5.4¢▼ below by 5.3pp
VWAP 7d5.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$61
20¢
$7.6K
15¢
$9.0K
10¢
$214
5¢
$2.0K
0¢
← now
$63.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYIlia Simakin (NO)$20.2K@ 99.8¢0x5a27…3404🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYIlia Simakin (NO)$10.9K@ 96.9¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYIlia Simakin (NO)$12.2K@ 97.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyIlia Simakin$23.9K
BUY VWAP 96.5¢·3 fills
0x5a27…3404Ilia Simakin$20.2K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.