LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 71 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $723.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $228.8KEvent: LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:99 trades$64.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 82 min agoofficial metadata 75 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $15.8K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$42.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRED Canids (YES)$20.5K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$19.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.5K
6h
−$19.6K
tracked
$64.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$15.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 71 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 82 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 75 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between RED Canids and paiN Gaming in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 8 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "RED Canids" if RED Canids win Game 1 against paiN Gaming. This market will resolve to "paiN Gaming" if paiN Gaming win Game 1 against RED Canids. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $367$663 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$19.5K
6h$19.6K
24h$19.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h79.8¢▲ above by 20.2pp
VWAP 7d79.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$37.7K
90¢
$3.1K
85¢
$69
80¢
$5
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$74
50¢
$2.6K
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$14.7K
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$104
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLRED Canids (YES)$20.5K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRED Canids (YES)$13.2K@ 98.4¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hRED Canids$13.2K
BUY VWAP 98.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.