Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Mathys Erhard vs Joel Schwaerzler

● quote 26 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $472.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Mathys Erhard vs Joel Schwaerzler
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection47Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:193 trades$350.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 26 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$81.6K·6 wallets(2🐋)·$220.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMathys Erhard (YES)$112.0K@ 56¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$163.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$163.4K
6h
+$143.8K
tracked
$350.7K

6 verified profitable wallets: +$81.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 39 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 26.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Erhard and Joel Schwaerzler in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki, originally scheduled for August 8, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Erhard' if Mathys Erhard advances against Joel Schwaerzler. This market will resolve to 'Joel Schwaerzler' if Joel Schwaerzler advances against Mathys Erhard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY NO1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Joel Schwaerzler1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Joel Schwaerzler1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Joel Schwaerzler@ 74.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $21$10 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$163.4K
6h+$143.8K
24h+$143.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▼ below by 38.0pp
VWAP 7d38.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$320
70¢
$855
65¢
$381
60¢
$10.4K
55¢
$140.9K
50¢
$7.6K
45¢
$23.0K
40¢
$54.7K
35¢
$10.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.8K
10¢
$2.5K
5¢
$50.8K
0¢
← now
$31.1K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLJoel Schwaerzler (NO)$17.1K@ 99.9¢0x6982…a165🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLJoel Schwaerzler (NO)$34.7K@ 93.1¢0xa8a1…2974🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJoel Schwaerzler (NO)$22.7K@ 52.5¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJoel Schwaerzler (NO)$46.4K@ 58.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYMathys Erhard (YES)$28.0K@ 56.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYMathys Erhard (YES)$112.0K@ 56.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJoel Schwaerzler (NO)$10.0K@ 39.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYJoel Schwaerzler (NO)$10.7K@ 62.5¢0x6982…a165🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Mathys Erhard$140.0K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
DjdjdjekekekJoel Schwaerzler$69.2K
BUY VWAP 56.1¢·3 fills
0x6982…a165Joel Schwaerzler$10.7K
BUY VWAP 62.5¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Joel Schwaerzler$10.0K
BUY VWAP 39.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.