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National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

● quote 15 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $603.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $529.5KEvent: National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
0.6¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:188 trades$221.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $5.9K·5 wallets·$25.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniel Merida Aguilar (NO)$33.4K@ 81¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$18.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.0K
6h
−$2.6K
tracked
$221.3K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$5.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -18.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tallon Griekspoor and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tallon Griekspoor' if Tallon Griekspoor advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Tallon Griekspoor. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Daniel Merida Aguilar@ 81.0¢43m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniel Merida Aguilar@ 46.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $17.4K → $24.5K · 18s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$18.0K
6h−$2.6K
24h+$8.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.6¢
VWAP 24h31.2¢▼ below by 30.6pp
VWAP 7d31.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$48.5K
50¢
$48.0K
45¢
$5.7K
40¢
$749
35¢
$2.2K
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$5.2K
20¢
$5.8K
15¢
$45.0K
10¢
$169
5¢
$876
0¢
← now
$32.0K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar (NO)$19.1K@ 95.9¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLDaniel Merida Aguilar (NO)$33.4K@ 81.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTallon Griekspoor (YES)$11.0K@ 55.0¢0xf438…9559🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar (NO)$19.0K@ 46.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYTallon Griekspoor (YES)$11.3K@ 55.6¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 19 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0b1feDaniel Merida Aguilar$19.1K
BUY VWAP 95.9¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Daniel Merida Aguilar$19.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
0x0cdf…ec9eTallon Griekspoor$11.3K
BUY VWAP 55.6¢·1 fill
0xf438…9559Tallon Griekspoor$11.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.