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National Bank Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $383.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $77.4KEvent: National Bank Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton
46.5¢
YES
53.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly33Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$28.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 10s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$15.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJoao Fonseca (YES)$13.0K@ 47¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$280
6h
+$10.0K
tracked
$28.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$10.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Joao Fonseca and Ben Shelton in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Joao Fonseca. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$280
6h+$10.0K
24h+$4.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h46.7¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d46.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$28.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJoao Fonseca (YES)$13.0K@ 47.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaJoao Fonseca$13.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.