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Astana: Vadym Ursu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas

● quote 65 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $259.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.9KEvent: Astana: Vadym Ursu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:46 trades$15.3K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 73 min agoofficial metadata 59 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $84·2 wallets·$86 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLManoj Dhamne Manas (NO)$5.1K@ 82¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.7K
6h
+$882
tracked
$15.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$84 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 65 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 73 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 59 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Vadym Ursu and Manoj Dhamne Manas in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Vadym Ursu' if Vadym Ursu advances against Manoj Dhamne Manas. This market will resolve to 'Manoj Dhamne Manas' if Manoj Dhamne Manas advances against Vadym Ursu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $61 → $9 · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.7K
6h+$882
24h+$882

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h17.4¢▼ below by 17.3pp
VWAP 7d17.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$8
20¢
$235
15¢
$5.1K
10¢
$100
5¢
$30
0¢
← now
$7.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity