Astana: Sergey Fomin vs Maxim Zhukov

● quote 78 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $143.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5MEvent: Astana: Sergey Fomin vs Maxim Zhukov
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets89Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:278 trades$882.7K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 60%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 80 min agoofficial metadata 70 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$228.7K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$257.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSergey Fomin (YES)$57.6K@ 89¢·0xe30e…6b87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$17.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.2K
6h
+$550.0K
tracked
$882.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$228.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 78 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 80 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 70 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sergey Fomin and Maxim Zhukov in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sergey Fomin' if Sergey Fomin advances against Maxim Zhukov. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Zhukov' if Maxim Zhukov advances against Sergey Fomin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 93.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Sergey Fomin@ 92.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGESELL Sergey Fomin@ 91.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Sergey Fomin@ 93.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $255$55 · 21s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$17.2K
6h+$550.0K
24h+$550.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h78.7¢▲ above by 21.2pp
VWAP 7d78.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.1K
90¢
$42.9K
85¢
$267.4K
80¢
$135.6K
75¢
$15.3K
70¢
$117.1K
65¢
$215.9K
60¢
$66.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLSergey Fomin (YES)$11.1K@ 99.9¢0x6982…a165🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$11.7K@ 90.0¢0x447d…5eea🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$18.7K@ 83.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$35.3K@ 83.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$35.3K@ 83.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$14.9K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$15.1K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$15.1K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$15.1K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$18.3K@ 87.9¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$20.6K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$12.1K@ 88.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLSergey Fomin (YES)$53.1K@ 89.2¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLSergey Fomin (YES)$57.6K@ 89.3¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$45.4K@ 73.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$26.9K@ 71.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$18.1K@ 72.4¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$10.1K@ 75.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$29.6K@ 68.7¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$17.6K@ 66.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$16.1K@ 66.5¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$16.1K@ 66.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$16.6K@ 65.6¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$18.1K@ 66.6¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$16.2K@ 66.5¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$10.4K@ 66.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$45.0K@ 65.7¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$25.3K@ 65.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$25.6K@ 63.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSergey Fomin (YES)$12.9K@ 64.5¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe30e…6b87Sergey Fomin$375.6K
BUY VWAP 68.3¢·22 fills
ferrariChampions2026Sergey Fomin$227.5K
BUY VWAP 85.9¢·14 fills
0x447d…5eeaSergey Fomin$37.0K
BUY VWAP 89.8¢·4 fills
0xdbdd…a5deSergey Fomin$15.6K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Sergey Fomin$10.1K
BUY VWAP 68.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.