Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Tai Sach

● quote 19 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $1.9MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Tai Sach
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets31Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:302 trades$546.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 21 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$146.3K·5 wallets(3🐋)·$467.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$67.9K@ 90¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$180.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$180.9K
6h
+$121.2K
tracked
$546.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$146.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 27 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lucio Ratti and Tai Sach in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucio Ratti' if Lucio Ratti advances against Tai Sach. This market will resolve to 'Tai Sach' if Tai Sach advances against Lucio Ratti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Lucio Ratti@ 97.0¢27m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Lucio Ratti@ 97.0¢27m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Lucio Ratti40m ago
Outcome checks pending
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Lucio Ratti@ 95.0¢41m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $136$7.7K · 4s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$180.9K
6h+$121.2K
24h+$122.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h78.2¢▲ above by 21.7pp
VWAP 7d78.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$84.8K
90¢
$25.8K
85¢
$130.7K
80¢
$3.2K
75¢
$3.1K
70¢
$26
65¢
$233.9K
60¢
$59.4K
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$4.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$13.9K@ 94.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋36 minutes ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$67.3K@ 96.7¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋39 minutes ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$19.8K@ 89.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$15.9K@ 89.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$67.9K@ 89.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$14.2K@ 88.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$11.4K@ 63.3¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTai Sach (NO)$12.1K@ 32.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTai Sach (NO)$50.4K@ 32.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTai Sach (NO)$15.0K@ 32.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTai Sach (NO)$64.0K@ 32.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$63.9K@ 67.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLucio Ratti (YES)$10.0K@ 66.3¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekLucio Ratti$276.1K
BUY VWAP 81.6¢·9 fills
0x2c33…0563Tai Sach$118.9K
BUY VWAP 29.6¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Lucio Ratti$30.9K
BUY VWAP 78.4¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Tai Sach$29.8K
BUY VWAP 26.8¢·3 fills
RN1Tai Sach$11.9K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·4 fills
0x5f65…2036Tai Sach$10.0K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·2 fills
MarcoliLucio Ratti$10.0K
BUY VWAP 66.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.