National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek

● quote 87 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $834.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.6MEvent: National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek
27.5¢
YES
72.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly72Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority39Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$478.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 95 min agoofficial metadata 89 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$30.7K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$437.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiana Shnaider (YES)$123.3K@ 33¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.4K
6h
−$17.0K
tracked
$478.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$30.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 39

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 87 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 95 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 89 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Diana Shnaider and Iga Swiatek in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Iga Swiatek. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Diana Shnaider. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 26.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Diana Shnaider@ 26.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Diana Shnaider@ 31.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Diana Shnaider@ 31.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$6.4K
6h$17.0K
24h+$30.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h29.4¢▼ below by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d29.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$186.2K
25¢
← now
$291.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLDiana Shnaider (YES)$83.7K@ 26.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 12 hours ago
SELLDiana Shnaider (YES)$93.3K@ 27.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYDiana Shnaider (YES)$54.8K@ 33.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYDiana Shnaider (YES)$123.3K@ 32.7¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYDiana Shnaider (YES)$44.8K@ 29.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 13 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekDiana Shnaider$230.0K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.