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Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Filip Jianu

● quote 35 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $222.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.5KEvent: Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Filip Jianu
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:71 trades$56.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 33 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaul Brancaccio (YES)$15.0K@ 70¢·0xe30e…6b87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$21.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.0K
6h
+$12.1K
tracked
$56.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +27.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 35 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 33 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-17 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Raul Brancaccio and Filip Jianu in the Hamburg, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raul Brancaccio' if Raul Brancaccio advances against Filip Jianu. This market will resolve to 'Filip Jianu' if Filip Jianu advances against Raul Brancaccio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 34m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 34m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Brancaccio@ 73.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Brancaccio@ 71.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $157 → $13 · 17s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$21.0K
6h+$12.1K
24h+$13.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.7¢▲ above by 19.2pp
VWAP 7d80.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$21.4K
90¢
$113
85¢
$144
80¢
$37
75¢
$0
70¢
$10.5K
65¢
$22.2K
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$8
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLRaul Brancaccio (YES)$11.9K@ 99.9¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaul Brancaccio (YES)$10.4K@ 71.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYRaul Brancaccio (YES)$15.0K@ 70.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe30e…6b87Raul Brancaccio$28.7K
BUY VWAP 70.5¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.