Brownsburg: Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade

● quote 105 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $80.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $124.6KEvent: Brownsburg: Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade
20.5¢
YES
79.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$69.1K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 150 min agoofficial metadata 110 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndres Andrade (NO)$19.4K@ 87¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$30
6h
−$19.6K
tracked
$69.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$19.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 105 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 150 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 110 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Joel Schwaerzler and Andres Andrade in the Brownsburg, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joel Schwaerzler' if Joel Schwaerzler advances against Andres Andrade. This market will resolve to 'Andres Andrade' if Andres Andrade advances against Joel Schwaerzler. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Andres Andrade@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Andres Andrade@ 85.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Andres Andrade@ 83.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$30
6h$19.6K
24h$19.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h16.7¢▲ above by 3.8pp
VWAP 7d16.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$1
20¢
← now
$23.2K
15¢
$12.9K
10¢
$31.4K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAndres Andrade (NO)$12.9K@ 83.7¢0x6982…a165🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYAndres Andrade (NO)$19.4K@ 87.5¢0x076d…8d4c🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYAndres Andrade (NO)$12.0K@ 87.0¢0x6982…a165🐋about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x6982…a165Andres Andrade$24.9K
BUY VWAP 85.2¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cAndres Andrade$19.4K
BUY VWAP 87.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.