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Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 36 minutesLiquidity: $1.4MOfficial 24h Vol: $265.3KEvent: Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City
38.5¢
YES
61.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$97.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $6.5K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$33.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$13.9K@ 62¢·swisstony

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$19.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.5K
6h
+$18.5K
tracked
$97.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$6.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 50

Since latest confirmed build: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.thefa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 16, 2026 If Manchester City wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $61.9K gross
gransaaa2 linked markets · $26.7K gross
Jsram2 linked markets · $7.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY YES@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 37.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$19.5K
6h+$18.5K
24h+$36.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h38.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d38.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$9.2K
35¢
← now
$88.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$13.9K@ 62.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYYES$10.8K@ 39.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?
33.5¢$194.0Kpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

gransaaaYes$17.4K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·6 fills
swisstonyNo$16.5K
BUY VWAP 61.9¢·3 fills
swisstonyYes$13.4K
BUY VWAP 38.6¢·2 fills
0x2a69…d2f7Yes$13.0K
BUY VWAP 38.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.