Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5

● quote 22 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $89.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $205.5KEvent: Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City - More Markets
50.5¢
YES
49.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$98.3K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$77.4K@ 51¢·gransaaa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.6K
6h
+$57.6K
tracked
$98.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$4.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 22 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.thefa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming FA Community Shield game between Arsenal FC and Manchester City, scheduled for August 16 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Arsenal FC and Manchester City combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on thefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$4.6K
6h+$57.6K
24h+$56.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$98.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$77.4K@ 51.0¢
gransaaa0x4d30…a42d
🐋about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

gransaaaOver$77.4K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rUnder$11.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.