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Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-08-22?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $140.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $88.7KEvent: Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza
27.0¢
YES
73.0¢
NO
8.0¢
Spread
anomaly77Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$34.6K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.9K·3 wallets·$11.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$6.7K@ 51¢·dv-pm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$740
6h
−$6.4K
tracked
$34.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$11.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
8.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +27.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 8.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 27.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbol
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 22, 2026 If Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY NO1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +44.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.7K → $1.3K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$740
6h−$6.4K
24h−$4.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.0¢
VWAP 24h50.3¢▼ below by 23.3pp
VWAP 7d50.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$33.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$3
35¢
$4
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$4
15¢
$14
10¢
$0
5¢
$759
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kekasaurNo$18.9K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.