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Will SC Internacional win on 2026-08-22?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $153.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $398.4KEvent: SC Internacional vs. CA Mineiro
44.5¢
YES
55.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$164.9K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$94.6K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$125.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$38.1K@ 54¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$10.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.5K
6h
+$58.9K
tracked
$164.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$94.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 22, 2026 If SC Internacional wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 54.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $50 → $1.4K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$10.5K
6h+$58.9K
24h+$58.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h52.6¢▼ below by 8.1pp
VWAP 7d52.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$188
50¢
$160.4K
45¢
$4.0K
40¢
← now
$300
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$38.1K@ 54.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$26.5K@ 53.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$15.4K@ 53.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$19.3K@ 48.0¢
HBAFlover980xac47…d234
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$17.3K@ 51.6¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$12.7K@ 50.5¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSAYes$109.9K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·5 fills
HBAFlover98No$19.3K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.