Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

● quote 28 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $174.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $167.3KEvent: Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$37.2K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 28 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Heretics (YES)$2.4K@ 59¢·0x82dc…5700

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$200
6h
−$7
tracked
$37.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 28 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 52 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Heretics and Natus Vincere in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 12 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Team Heretics. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x86df…d9023 linked markets · $45.9K gross
0x2d39…60532 linked markets · $12.0K gross
0x3471…f17e2 linked markets · $7.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $54 → $13 · 3s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$200
6h−$7
24h−$7

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h52.7¢▲ above by 47.3pp
VWAP 7d52.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.8K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$5.2K
55¢
$10.3K
50¢
$3.9K
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$4.0K
35¢
$2.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.1K
10¢
$1.3K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins
53.0¢$204.1Kpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$126.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.