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National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $329.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $254.7KEvent: National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien
32.5¢
YES
67.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets29Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$91.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 13s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$13.3K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$45.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar (YES)$27.4K@ 50¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$8.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.9K
6h
+$3.0K
tracked
$91.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$13.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 52

Since latest large flow: -18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Learner Tien in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Learner Tien. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Daniel Merida Aguilar@ 51.0¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $23.6K → $10.7K · 11s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8.9K
6h+$3.0K
24h−$8.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.5¢
VWAP 24h43.0¢▼ below by 10.4pp
VWAP 7d43.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$7
50¢
$36.7K
45¢
$10.4K
40¢
$588
35¢
$26.6K
30¢
← now
$16.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar (YES)$27.4K@ 50.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYLearner Tien (NO)$13.1K@ 64.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Daniel Merida Aguilar$27.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Learner Tien$13.1K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.