National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff

● quote 9 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $95.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $413.8KEvent: National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff
49.5¢
YES
50.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection42Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$174.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $16.1K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$31.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBelinda Bencic (YES)$16.8K@ 40¢·0xd8b4…7773

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$72.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$72.0K
6h
+$27.4K
tracked
$174.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$16.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 67

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 9 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Belinda Bencic and Coco Gauff in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Belinda Bencic' if Belinda Bencic advances against Coco Gauff. This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Belinda Bencic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Belinda Bencic@ 50.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Belinda Bencic@ 50.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Belinda Bencic@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Belinda Bencic@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $181.1K$1.7K · 81s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$72.0K
6h+$27.4K
24h+$35.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h42.3¢▲ above by 7.2pp
VWAP 7d42.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$18.7K
45¢
← now
$30.2K
40¢
$67.9K
35¢
$57.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBelinda Bencic (YES)$13.4K@ 41.2¢0x2f01…fa78🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (YES)$16.8K@ 40.0¢0xd8b4…7773🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (YES)$16.0K@ 38.0¢0xd8b4…7773🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (YES)$12.6K@ 39.0¢0x2f01…fa78🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYCoco Gauff (NO)$12.5K@ 60.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd8b4…7773Belinda Bencic$37.4K
BUY VWAP 39.3¢·3 fills
0x2f01…fa78Belinda Bencic$29.2K
BUY VWAP 40.9¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cCoco Gauff$14.5K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·3 fills
0x3e85…788bBelinda Bencic$11.2K
BUY VWAP 43.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.