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Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $161.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $931.9KEvent: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901
12.0¢
YES
88.0¢
NO
3.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets82Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:214 trades$419.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $62.9K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$76.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$198.0K@ 66¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $49.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$49.9K
6h
+$147.6K
tracked
$419.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $62.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.8¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 86% · priority 66

Since latest counter flow: +1.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 3.8¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.ligue1.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Paris Saint-Germain FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 23, 2026 If Paris Saint-Germain FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $57.5K gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $31.7K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $28.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY NO@ 88.0¢41m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -49.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.9pp · near-book depth $86 → $156 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $49.9K
6hYES · $147.6K
24hYES · $151.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.0¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▼ below by 41.0pp
VWAP 7d53.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$260.7K
60¢
$17.2K
55¢
$1.6K
50¢
$14.3K
45¢
$41.0K
40¢
$3.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$6.8K
20¢
$10.5K
15¢
$33.1K
10¢
← now
$16.4K
5¢
$16.6K
0¢
$3.9K

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.0K@ 87.2¢0xf559…f462🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 80.6¢0x21bc…6455🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$198.0K@ 66.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 66.0¢
acount30x65b5…aa71
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 66.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaYes$198.0K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNo$27.9K
BUY VWAP 67.4¢·39 fills
swisstonyNo$24.5K
BUY VWAP 72.6¢·14 fills
FeromontYes$15.0K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
anon.1980.123No$13.0K
BUY VWAP 88.6¢·2 fills
acount3Yes$11.4K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462No$10.0K
BUY VWAP 87.2¢·1 fill
0x21bc…6455No$10.0K
BUY VWAP 80.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.