Dota 2: BoomBoys vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 24 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $145.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage
79.5¢
YES
20.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly35Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:94 trades$672.5K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 24 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$417.8K·4 wallets(3🐋)·$497.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoomBoys (YES)$364.5K@ 70¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$6.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.9K
6h
+$581.7K
tracked
$672.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$417.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 78% · priority 52

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 24 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 34 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between BoomBoys and OG in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win the match against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win the match against BoomBoys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $384.7K gross
0x3471…f17e2 linked markets · $4.4K gross
0x2d39…60532 linked markets · $4.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL OG@ 26.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY OG@ 29.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY BoomBoys@ 71.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
POSITION CHANGESELL BoomBoys@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6.9K
6h+$581.7K
24h+$584.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.5¢
VWAP 24h71.0¢▲ above by 8.6pp
VWAP 7d71.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$33.6K
70¢
$639.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLOG (NO)$32.3K@ 27.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLOG (NO)$19.7K@ 28.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$10.8K@ 72.0¢0xb272…5030🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$364.5K@ 70.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$70.0K@ 70.0¢0xec98…afcd🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYOG (NO)$12.0K@ 29.6¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$14.6K@ 73.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$14.6K@ 73.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$18.3K@ 73.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$10.2K@ 73.0¢0xfae1…fdc1🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYOG (NO)$10.8K@ 25.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: BoomBoys vs OG - Game 1 Winner
82.5¢$164.6Kpriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563BoomBoys$367.5K
BUY VWAP 70.1¢·2 fills
0xec98…afcdBoomBoys$70.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
0x6b60…edbeBoomBoys$29.2K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·2 fills
DjdjdjekekekOG$23.7K
BUY VWAP 28.9¢·4 fills
iDARKenjoyerBoomBoys$18.3K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 25.9¢·3 fills
zb8BoomBoys$12.4K
BUY VWAP 71.5¢·2 fills
0xb272…5030BoomBoys$10.8K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
0xfae1…fdc1BoomBoys$10.2K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.