Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

● quote 46 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $369.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $560.6KEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection35Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:198 trades$224.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 55 min agoofficial metadata 50 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.3K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$21.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAurora (YES)$77.5K@ 100¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$79.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$79.0K
6h
−$70.1K
tracked
$224.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$21.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 46 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 55 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 50 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 12:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Aurora and GamerLegion in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $123.5K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $72.3K gross
0x4572…83ff2 linked markets · $29.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora@ 69.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -33.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $9.9K · 16s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$79.0K
6h−$70.1K
24h−$70.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h86.9¢▲ above by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d86.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$155.0K
90¢
$95
85¢
$3.6K
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$2.3K
70¢
$22.5K
65¢
$5.5K
60¢
$9.1K
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$100
45¢
$5
40¢
$1
35¢
$3.9K
30¢
$17.6K
25¢
$19
20¢
$397
15¢
$48
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAurora (YES)$77.5K@ 99.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLAurora (YES)$11.1K@ 99.9¢0x4572…83ff🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLAurora (YES)$10.3K@ 99.9¢
gxxyy0x4aec…4ce9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora (YES)$11.3K@ 30.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora (YES)$10.0K@ 72.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$360.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢$55.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Aurora$19.0K
BUY VWAP 69.2¢·8 fills
0x2c33…0563Aurora$11.3K
BUY VWAP 30.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.