Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

● quote 3 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $193.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $179.6KEvent: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
9.6¢
YES
90.4¢
NO
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly65Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:85 trades$61.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $11.4K·3 wallets·$29.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates (NO)$10.9K@ 49¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.0K
6h
−$24.7K
tracked
$61.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$11.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 16 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $17.9K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $14.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $16.4K$123 · 70s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$1.0K
6h$24.7K
24h$25.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current9.6¢
VWAP 24h48.8¢▼ below by 39.2pp
VWAP 7d48.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$50.7K
45¢
$101
40¢
$7.3K
35¢
$17
30¢
$5
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$10
15¢
$756
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$0
0¢
$368

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPittsburgh Pirates (NO)$10.9K@ 49.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Pittsburgh Pirates$11.2K
BUY VWAP 47.4¢·2 fills
Sassy-BucketPittsburgh Pirates$10.9K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.