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ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge

● quote 48 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $173.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.2KEvent: ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets44Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$112.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.2K·2 wallets·$17.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancisca Jorge (NO)$13.3K@ 67¢·0x5d76…9168

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3K
6h
−$48.1K
tracked
$112.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$11.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 48 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 76 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 43 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Celia Cervino Ruiz and Francisca Jorge in the ITF W35 Vigo Women, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Celia Cervino Ruiz' if Celia Cervino Ruiz advances against Francisca Jorge. This market will resolve to 'Francisca Jorge' if Francisca Jorge advances against Celia Cervino Ruiz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francisca Jorge@ 99.9¢2h ago
15m STALLED -0.5pp1h STALLED -0.1pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.3K
6h−$48.1K
24h−$48.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h30.2¢▼ below by 30.1pp
VWAP 7d30.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$38.2K
35¢
$26.6K
30¢
$15.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$4.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$24.1K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFrancisca Jorge (NO)$11.5K@ 99.0¢0x984b…867a🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFrancisca Jorge (NO)$13.3K@ 67.2¢0x5d76…9168🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5d76…9168Francisca Jorge$30.0K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·6 fills
RN1Celia Cervino Ruiz$14.2K
BUY VWAP 40.4¢·7 fills
0x984b…867aFrancisca Jorge$13.3K
BUY VWAP 92.4¢·3 fills
0x8546…35b8Francisca Jorge$11.9K
BUY VWAP 59.8¢·3 fills
0xe911…3d4eCelia Cervino Ruiz$10.4K
BUY VWAP 38.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.