Todi: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro

● quote 39 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $186.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $216.2KEvent: Todi: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro
3.5¢
YES
96.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:88 trades$70.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 39 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $69·2 wallets·$2.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Passaro (NO)$18.5K@ 66¢·0xd114…b5b3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$23.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$23.1K
6h
+$1.8K
tracked
$70.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$69 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 39 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 39 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 35.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlo Alberto Caniato and Francesco Passaro in the Todi, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlo Alberto Caniato' if Carlo Alberto Caniato advances against Francesco Passaro. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Carlo Alberto Caniato. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Francesco Passaro2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Passaro@ 62.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.3K$11.6K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$23.1K
6h+$1.8K
24h+$1.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.5¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▼ below by 34.5pp
VWAP 7d38.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$8
70¢
$8.0K
65¢
$10.6K
60¢
$4
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.5K
45¢
$101
40¢
$36
35¢
$6.3K
30¢
$18.5K
25¢
$4
20¢
$17
15¢
$23.7K
10¢
$59
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLFrancesco Passaro (NO)$16.8K@ 82.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYFrancesco Passaro (NO)$18.5K@ 65.8¢0xd114…b5b3🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd114…b5b3Francesco Passaro$24.8K
BUY VWAP 65.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.