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Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Khumoun Sultanov

● quote 32 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $490.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $146.4KEvent: Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Khumoun Sultanov
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$29.4K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKhumoun Sultanov (NO)$2.8K@ 94¢·0x0c4d…a427

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.7K
6h
+$4.7K
tracked
$29.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$16 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 32 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 52 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lucio Ratti and Khumoun Sultanov in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucio Ratti' if Lucio Ratti advances against Khumoun Sultanov. This market will resolve to 'Khumoun Sultanov' if Khumoun Sultanov advances against Lucio Ratti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $904 → $1.4K · 14s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.7K
6h+$4.7K
24h+$4.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h17.1¢▼ below by 17.0pp
VWAP 7d17.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.9K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$2.0K
30¢
$90
25¢
$1.0K
20¢
$4.9K
15¢
$4.8K
10¢
$3.9K
5¢
$4.5K
0¢
← now
$4.8K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity