Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller

● quote 15 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $309.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $272.9KEvent: Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller
33.5¢
YES
66.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:151 trades$80.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$3.1K·3 wallets·$9.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarvin Moeller (NO)$10.0K@ 34¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
−$1.5K
tracked
$80.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$3.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Raul Brancaccio and Marvin Moeller in the Hamburg, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raul Brancaccio' if Raul Brancaccio advances against Marvin Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Marvin Moeller' if Marvin Moeller advances against Raul Brancaccio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 10.0pp · near-book depth $15$8.5K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.6K
6h$1.5K
24h$1.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h51.4¢▼ below by 17.9pp
VWAP 7d51.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$10
90¢
$10
85¢
$1.8K
80¢
$4.0K
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$21.6K
60¢
$6.2K
55¢
$3.8K
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$79
40¢
$9.3K
35¢
$11.8K
30¢
← now
$3.1K
25¢
$10.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.3K
10¢
$103
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMarvin Moeller (NO)$10.0K@ 34.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Marvin Moeller$15.0K
BUY VWAP 39.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.