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Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

UncategorizedCloses: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $21.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $76.3KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026?
1.1¢
YES
98.9¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:2 trades$2.0K trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 353 min agoofficial metadata 349 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$2.0K@ 100¢·0x9d80…fcaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$14
6h
+$14
tracked
$2.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-08-21 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Hustleharder8885 linked markets · $49.2K gross
Boss75 linked markets · $41.6K gross
0x9d80…fcaf8 linked markets · $32.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$14
6h+$14
24h+$14

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.1¢
VWAP 24h1.2¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d1.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.