Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha

● quote 58 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $69.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $142.6KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha
67.5¢
YES
32.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$91.9K tracked40% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 187 min agoofficial metadata 61 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarcos Giron (YES)$50.0K@ 68¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$90.7K
tracked
$91.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$91.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 58 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 187 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 61 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marcos Giron and Henrique Rocha in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if Marcos Giron advances against Henrique Rocha. This market will resolve to 'Henrique Rocha' if Henrique Rocha advances against Marcos Giron. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Marcos Giron@ 69.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Marcos Giron@ 68.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$90.7K
24h+$90.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.5¢
VWAP 24h68.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$91.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMarcos Giron (YES)$37.9K@ 68.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYMarcos Giron (YES)$50.0K@ 68.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaMarcos Giron$91.3K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.