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Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

● quote 78 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $184.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $697.9KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets92Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:115 trades$418.2K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 60%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 83 min agoofficial metadata 77 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $54.1K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$58.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$103.9K@ 100¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$156.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$156.4K
6h
−$174.5K
tracked
$418.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$54.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +79.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 78 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 83 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 77 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Shevchenko and Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Shevchenko' if Alexander Shevchenko advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Alexander Shevchenko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Alexander Shevchenko@ 79.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Alexander Shevchenko3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Shevchenko@ 58.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.0pp1h CONFIRMED +37.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz@ 46.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $264 → $3.5K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$156.4K
6h−$174.5K
24h−$176.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.8¢▲ above by 19.1pp
VWAP 7d80.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$210.2K
90¢
$19.2K
85¢
$16
80¢
$14.0K
75¢
$207
70¢
$20.8K
65¢
$0
60¢
$26
55¢
$88.2K
50¢
$64.2K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$103.9K@ 99.9¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$34.3K@ 99.9¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$10.4K@ 99.9¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$17.8K@ 99.9¢0xf377…4159🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$10.0K@ 96.5¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$16.5K@ 92.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$19.7K@ 74.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$10.0K@ 56.3¢0xf377…4159🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$19.7K@ 55.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPablo Llamas Ruiz (NO)$21.9K@ 45.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
SELLAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$20.2K@ 54.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYAlexander Shevchenko (YES)$10.0K@ 52.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Alexander Shevchenko$39.5K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Pablo Llamas Ruiz$21.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
0x0c4c…d70dAlexander Shevchenko$10.0K
BUY VWAP 96.5¢·1 fill
0xf377…4159Alexander Shevchenko$10.0K
BUY VWAP 56.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.